A potential $250bn opportunity has been identified for destination marketers, with forecasts showing strong growth in Chinese outbound travel during the September – November ‘shoulder season’, according to a recently released EternityX report titled Unlocking Shoulder-Season Demand: Chinese Outbound Travel, 2025.
The report projects 155 million outbound trips next year, marking a 25 per cent increase year-on-year, as Chinese consumers regain confidence in overseas travel.
The ‘shoulder season’ is emerging as a ‘value window’, with fares down 32 per cent compared with summer peaks.
“Chinese travelers are no longer just seasonal nomads, they’re strategic planners seeking value, experiences, and cultural resonance,” said Charlene Ree, CEO and Founder of EternityX. “Our report empowers brands to navigate this shift, turning shoulder-season curiosity into year-round loyalty through data-driven, culturally attuned strategies.”
Recommendations for brands and marketers
EternityX suggests a set of strategies for travel and hospitality marketers to capitalise on this momentum:
- Act early in September with urgency-led campaigns to capture late decision-makers ahead of Golden Week.
- Leverage visa-free and cost-advantage destinations in marketing communications.
- Tailor messaging by segment — Gen Z on Xiaohongshu/Douyin, families with safety packages, millennials and seniors with premium wellness offers.
- Use short-burst campaigns: Three to four weeks before Golden Week.
- Retarget post-holiday with offers on winter escapes to build year-round loyalty.
Shifting traveller profiles and destination marketing trends between September and November
EternityX notes five segments driving the recovery during the September-November shoulder season.
- Gen Z digital explorers are booking via social platforms.
- Affluent millennials are driving long-haul recovery and wellness travel, seeking Europe and wellness retreats
- Family/multigenerational group hotel bookings are doubling year-on-year, up 103 per cent, during Labour Day, mostly for short-haul trips.
- Silver travellers are wielding an estimated $6.7bn in spending power.
- FIT travel dominates, with rising demand for self-drive (up 60 per cent), while group tours remain 50 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.
Visa-free access is accelerating bookings with the Middle East reporting strong luxury and wellness demand. Abu Dhabi welcomed 1.4 million guests in the first quarter of 2025.
Booking windows remain compressed: 77 per cent of trips are finalised less than 30 days in advance, with nearly half within two weeks. Research typically begins 50–60 days out, positioning September as a crucial conversion period.
“Shoulder season is no longer a lull — it’s a proving ground for loyalty,” said Simon Zhong, Head of Insights and Product Innovation at EternityX. “For global travel brands, this period offers a rare chance to shift from transactional engagement to long-term equity. By fusing AI-driven precision with cultural intelligence, EternityX enables companies to convert short-lived demand spikes into repeatable growth. This is how we’ve helped over 1,200 brands worldwide turn seasonal volatility into sustained market advantage.
