When I look at Dubai this summer, I don’t see a city holding its breath. I see a city settling into the idea that this is where life, work, and holidays happen now.
You can see it in the city, and you can see it in the data. Across our own sentiment work, alongside studies from Consulum, HarrisX and others, the pattern is remarkably consistent. Most residents have no plans to leave. 92 per cent feel confident about the economy, while 94 per cent of expats plan to remain in the UAE for the foreseeable future. That’s not the profile of a population waiting for the next flight out. It’s a population putting down deeper roots.
The question isn’t whether people will spend this summer. It’s where and how that spending goes.
Redseer’s analysis found tourist spending fell sharply during the regional conflict, while resident spending barely moved. At the same time, 71 per cent of people across the UAE and Saudi Arabia told YouGov they were happy to spend more time in their own country this summer, with growing interest in staycations, local experiences and weekends closer to home.
Despite the recent regional situation, confidence has held up remarkably well. People feel good about being here, and they’re ready to enjoy the summer where they are.
The pattern that’s emerging
As someone who works in research, I’m always cautious about drawing big conclusions from a single study. What caught my attention this year wasn’t one report, but how often different pieces of research pointed to the same behavioural shift. That’s when you stop looking at individual findings and start paying attention to a pattern.
Our own Assembly pulse found 89 per cent of UAE residents are likely to travel within the Middle East once things stabilise, a far more optimistic outlook than respondents in the UK, France, the US and Singapore. Other studies point to the same foundations: confidence in the economy, trust in local institutions and quality of life.
For me, that’s the bigger insight. This feels less like a seasonal trend and more like a market that’s changing.
A behavioural shift brands are underestimating
For years, summer was driven by visitors. This year feels different. If residents are staying, optimistic and looking for ways to enjoy the months ahead, going quiet because the school holidays have started feels out of step with the market. Summer hasn’t become less important. It has become more local.
That doesn’t mean brands need to rethink everything. It means rethinking who they’re talking to.
A campaign built around welcoming visitors can often become one that speaks to the people already here. “Welcome to Dubai” becomes “Make the most of your summer in Dubai”. The audience shifts towards residents and families, along with the places and channels where they spend their time, from shopping centres and streaming platforms to retail media and CRM.
Small changes can go a long way
We’re already well into the holiday period, so this isn’t the moment for entirely new campaigns that take weeks to build. Start with what’s already live.
Recent reporting also suggests families are becoming more selective about how they spend the long summer break. Free activities fill up quickly, while paid camps can cost thousands of dirhams a week. Instead, many parents are piecing together a mix of home time, staycations, local attractions and day trips that keep children engaged without stretching the family budget. It’s another reminder that spending hasn’t disappeared; it’s become more considered. Resident rates, family day passes, kids-eat-free offers and short local escapes all respond to that mindset.
In travel and entertainment, reassurance still matters. Clear communication, flexible booking policies and visible safety measures continue to build confidence. This year, reassurance can come from confidence rather than caution.
A different kind of summer
This summer says something bigger about the UAE.
The most interesting shift isn’t that residents are staying. It’s that staying has become an expectation rather than an exception.
The UAE is quietly becoming a resident economy, with year-round residents shaping demand as much as seasonal visitors. It’s a shift businesses across the region are beginning to recognise, and one that extends well beyond the summer months.
For brands, that’s worth recognising. Campaigns that celebrate everyday moments, local experiences and the people who call the UAE home will feel more relevant than those built around a seasonal influx of visitors.
With Back to School just a few weeks away, this shift matters even more. Brands often treat August as the point where consumers return, and spending begins again. This year, there isn’t the same need to win people back. They’ve been here all along.
The assumptions we’ve carried into previous summer deserve another look. The brands that recognise this shift won’t just have a stronger summer; they’ll be better prepared for the market the UAE is becoming.
By Bipul Markan, Head of Research & Insights, Assembly MENA
